Evaluation

The suitability of the data for supporting future research will be evaluated in two ways. First using internal tests; estimates of demographic measures will be prepared using different subsets (critically between the archival sources and the results of the two village censuses undertaken by myself). Such comparisons will establish the extent to which a model of the population derived from the archival data approaches one based on the census data, and which parts of the model are more or less robust.

Secondly, some new pilot data will be collected in the course of a separate research project, funded by The British Academy, the Nuffield Foundation and the University of Kent Social Science Faculty Research Board in July 1997. While in the field a small set of well-understood health-related data will be collected with the express aim of using it to test the main data being processed in this project.

The basic schedule will ask respondents who they first go to for advice in response to illness (their own or a family member, or neighbours). The results will be sensitive, among other factors, to the age of the respondents and whether they were born in the village. The results will reveal connections between density of kinship network and responses to illness. Existing ethnographic data already allows the basic patterns of response to be predicted with respect to population structure. The model and the census data-based accounts of population structure can then be evaluated by the extent to which they predict the distribution of the independently-collected pilot data.

References

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Caldwell, J. C. 1994. Fertility in sub-saharan Africa - status and prospects. Population And Development Review 20(1), 179-187.

Caldwell, J. C., Caldwell, P. & Quiggin, P. 1989. The social-context of aids in sub-saharan Africa. Population And Development Review 15(2), 185-234.

Das Gupta, M. 1988. The use of Genealogies for Reconstructing Social History and Analysing Fertility Behaviour in a North Indian Village. In Micro-Approaches to Demographic Research (eds.) J. C. Caldwell, A. G. Hill & V. J. Hull. London: Kegan Paul International.

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Psion, G., & Langarey, A. 1988. Age Patterns of Mortality in Eastern Senegal: a Comparison of Micro and Survey Approaches. In Micro-Approaches to Demographic Research (eds.) J. C. Caldwell, A. G. Hill & V. J. Hull. London: Kegan Paul International.

Smith, J. E. & Oeppen, J. 1993. Estimating Numbers of Kin in Historical England Using Demographic Microsimulation. In Old and New Methods in Historical Demography (eds.) D. S. Reher & R. S. Schofield. Oxford: Clarendon Press.

Thornton, J. 1977. An eighteenth Century Baptismal Register and the Demographic History of Manguenzo. In African Historical Demography (eds) C. Fyfe & D. McMaster. Edinburgh: Centre of African Studies, University of Edinburgh.

van de Walle, E., G. Pison & M. Sala-Diakanda (eds) 1992. Mortality and Society in Sub-Saharan Africa (International Studies in Demography). Oxford: Clarendon Press.



Head of Proposal - The Data - VIMS